The MODFABE project will attend the IIASA Scenarios Forum 2022

The MODFABE project will attend the IIASA Scenarios Forum 2022, taking place on June 20-22th, 2022 in Vienna, Austria, and online worldwide. The abstract ‘A triple-loop survey to delve into physical climate storylines and address climate risk assessment: Learning from farmers’ perception and behaviour in northern Italy’ will be presented as poster in session 51 – Physical climate storylines: applications and perspectives. This contribution will present a triple-loop survey to detail the core elements of farmers’ perception and behaviour when addressing climate change risk. We collected first-hand observations from northern Italian farmers about how climate change affects their activity and how extreme events are conditioning their adaptation capacity. Emphasis is placed on understanding the driving factors (risk awareness, perceived impacts, and adaptation measures and barriers) involved in the physically self-consistent past events and the plausibility of those factors. Moreover, we want to test if these factors can provide relevant implications for appropriately modelling storylines in decision-making processes. Tentative results can be useful to discuss the methodological framework of storylines building and narratives modelling, and at which point surveys can be an alternative and complementary way of dealing with deep uncertainty within climate risk management and social scenarios modelling.